Elections and After

The recent Lok Sabha elections threw up several surprises. The voters decimated several regional satraps like Lalu Prasad, Paswan, Mulayam Singh, Vaiko, Ramadoss etc and reduced the prime-ministerial ambitions of others ranging from Jayalalitha, Pawar, Navin Patnaik to Mayawati and Modi. The BJP held its fort in most States under its rule (Rajasthan excepted) but failed to make significant gains. Its orchestrated campaign to reduce the poll to a direct contest between Manmohan Singh and Advani came a cropper. Karat’s grandiose plans to hoist a Third Front and provide alternative policies remained stillborn with key allies like JD(S) hobnobbing with Congress even before the last round of polling got underway. For the Congress and its allies, the results were sweeter than expected and the comfort derived from increased numbers has raised its confidence to deal with recalcitrant allies like DMK. The formation of cabinet has been like the birth pangs experienced during a difficult delivery. There is a fusion of youth and maturity in the new Cabinet. Rahul Gandhi’s decision not to join it but devote time to rejuvenating the party disappointed those opposed to the dynastic rule.

A fortnight later, the losers remain unrepentant. BJP proclaims that the Congress is misreading the mandate. It is not an endorsement of UPA’s performance but an acceptance of bipolarity in politics implying that Congress merely gained from the rejection of Third and Fourth Fronts. It may be partly valid but does not explain why these votes did not come the BJP’s way. Such a denial mode may do more damage to the party’s prospects. Its policies and manner of discourse is clearly out of sync with youth who constitute a significant part of electorate and have different aspirations. You cannot project an eighty year old as a youth icon while younger leaders in the party remain sidelined. The claims of strong and nationalistic leadership sounded hollow once the ghost of Kandahar and Advani’s praise of Jinnah rose from the past. BJP failed to raise important issues and how it would have done things differently. The campaign remained besmirched in ‘budiya-gudiya’ small talk. No wonder the voters drifted away to those who were a ‘lesser evil’ in voters’ parlance.

The Left parties were perceived as road-blocks to progress. The voters clearly felt that they were caught in a time warp and unwilling to change ideologically with times, as China did. Their decision to vote along side BJP to pull down the govt. over the Indo-US Nuclear deal along with the violence in Nandigram and Singur dented their image considerably and wiped them out of reckoning. In retrospect, Amrtya Sen was right when he disapproved of their decision to withdraw support to UPA and suggesting that they lost their voice in the process. The election results showed that it actually happened even in their strongholds like West Bengal and Kerala. There is saying suggesting there is nothing more dangerous than an idea if it is the only one you have. The Left parties seem to have vindicated it. However, their claim that but for their opposition to unbridled financial reforms, the impact of global recession on India would have been worse is not without merit.

The ball is now in UPA’s court. The problems are aplenty. There is a strong middle class waiting for a clean, transparent and efficient government. The rural populace needs employment generation and social justice to enable it to stay at home rather than migrate to urban chaos. Lacs of cases in courts highlight the need for speedy and fair trials. Education system must be overhauled to prevent meritorious young men and women from going overseas in quest of degrees and jobs. Health care must be made available at affordable prices. The departments dealing with public are seething with corruption and need to be cleansed. Initial indications are that the new ministers have been told to perform or to perish. One hopes they would choose the former option.

Modi-fied BJP

Narendra Modi is no longer just a poster boy for BJP. He has also acquired a larger than life image. There are umpteen stories about how the State has progressed under his rule and this is also confirmed by objective observers. He has the uncanny ability to sound sober and logical on media and in conferences while reserving his taunts and innuendos to woo and sway the masses in public meetings. No wonder he has emerged as a potential choice even for prime-minister ship once senior Advani makes way for him. His name was recently proposed by Arun Shourie and supported by the party’s spokesperson, Arun Jaitley. His success in decimating opponents within the party and without has been phenomenal and casts despair especially among Congressmen in Gujarat. During the ongoing campaign, they were found wanting on most occasions and forgot the real issues busy as they were in reacting to his salvos. Remember the frivolousness of ‘Budiya-Gudiya’ comments while serious issues remained on the backburner.

Modi’s popularity in Gujarat has been enigmatic. He allegedly acquiesced in, if not provoked, retaliatory violence against Muslims in the wake of an attack on Hindu karsevaks returning by train from Ayodhya. It resulted in the death of thousands of Muslims and destruction of their homes. The image of a tearful ex-MP Ehsan Jafri begging for life before he was killed by the rioters continues to haunt the civil society. The inaction of the State’s police was captured live by TV channels, which the independent observers found comparable to the situation prevailing during the anti-Sikh riots. Surprisingly Modi managed to turn the public anger against Muslims into political support for himself and won the next elections convincingly- a situation again comparable to Congress’ return to Lok Sabha in 1984 elections.

The Supreme Court recently instructed the SIT, on a petition filed by Jafri’s widow, to probe the role of Narendra Modi and seven of his ministers, including VHP international general secretary Pravin Togadia as also senior bureaucrats and police officers, into the communal riots in the state. It also ordered the setting up of special courts to try the accused in Gujarat. The BJP interestingly treated it as a compliment to judiciary of Gujarat since cases against rioters were transferred out of State in the past. As a result of SIT’s investigation, Maya Kodnani, a minister in Modi’s cabinet and a senior VHP functionary Jaideep Patel were recently arrested and both are cooling their heels in jail.

Modi’s ploy in Gujarat has been to confuse the issue of persecution of minorities to one of its 'asmita' or prestige of Gujaratis. So it no longer remains a Hindu-Muslim issue but becomes one of Congress-led Centre 'maligning' Guajratis. Mix it with Sonia's foreign origins and you can tongue-twist it to one of national honour. He simultaneously fuels and cashes on a sentiment that the ‘pseudo-secular Congress’ appeases Muslims and treats Hindus with contempt. Instances like delay in Afzal Guru’s execution are handpicked to support BJP’s case and give it a pro-Hindu image. The gullible voters are taken in and rarely question BJP’s record in protecting, promoting or reforming Hinduism. The only instances that come to mind are its sister organizations attacking churches and mosques, raping nuns and assaulting priests; none of which bring any glory to the Hindu faith or it followers.

BJP has always been accused, especially by the Left parties, of being fascist in character. The parallel is not entirely misplaced. Fascism is defined as a radical and authoritarian nationalist political ideology. Fascists believe that nations and races are in perpetual conflict whereby only the strong can survive. BJP’s insistence on India being a Hindu nation, intolerance of and atrocities against minorities and emphasis on strength and security in recent polls seem to fit in with a fascist mindset. The point of deviation is the compulsion to remain within the democratic framework while promoting nationalism, anti-minorityism and anti-communism with charismatic oratory and propaganda. The term fascist, after all, has been used as a pejorative word.

National Elections

Elections should normally be like a warm-up to the next round of governance. One expects an incisive analysis of various aspects of performance of the outgoing government to enable people to make an impassioned appraisal. Add to it the explanation how the contending party would do things differently and you have the game neatly and fairly drawn up. The rest rests with the voter’s index finger adorned with a blot of indelible ink to point to. The nation gets a new government. It does not seem to be happening this way so far. The campaign has been personal, vicious, almost defamatory and bordering on abuse. What is worse is that leading parties and towering leaders lowered the level of what was passed on as debate.

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal, which almost led to the fall of the government, hardly figured in the speeches. Those who accused the govt. of a sell-out of national interest to US and promised annulment or renegotiation, meekly submitted that they would let it be since it was an agreement between two governments. India’s neighbourhood got more and more insecure as we move towards the final phase of our national polls. The Maoist PM of Nepal has resigned following a tiff with his head of State over sacking of the military chief. Pakistan faces the brunt of Taliban advance in to its cities and is knocking at our doors in Kashmir and Punjab. Sri Lankan army quells the LTTE in our south creating a huge crisis for the civilian Tamil population caught in the crossfire. Military junta in Myanmar retains its stranglehold on the pro-democracy forces. Curiously, China is involved in all these nations. It is signing a treaty of friendship with Nepal, has been on best of terms with Pakistan, supports the Sri Lankan advance into the north, and stands by Myanmar. Besides, it lays claim over Arunachal Pradesh and continues to occupy Aksai Chin. It is almost encircling India. Did we hear a word about it?

So it is with global economy taking a beating, pink slips and lay offs and Sensex crashing and picking up again lately with bail-outs and positive cues from foreign markets. We learnt in school that we are an agricultural country but no one seems to care or question our performance on that front. We got famous for our IT and BPO and HB1 visa-grabbing professionals in the recent past. No one mentions them. Our small and medium industry has almost been wiped out by the cheap and under-invoiced Chinese imports. Not a whimper about it. Our exports as well as FDI are down. Are they? Population swells resulting in a virtual stampede of migrants from rural to urban centres. Naxals hijack trains and blow up polling stations in the Red-belt. Insurgency raises its head gain in the North-East. Best dismissed as regional issues. Issues relating to education, health and child care are best left buried in manifestoes.

Our panellists in print media and TV studios went on harping on pet and populist issues. The weakness or otherwise of PM; the debut speech of Varun Gandhi; the volte face of Kalyan Singh and Naveen Patnaik; the smile and saris of Priyanka Gandhi; the Modi-fied BJP and Bofor-ified Congress; black money stashed abroad; prospects of the Third and Fourth fronts upstaging the both and so on so forth. Is it any wonder that more than half of our population did not exercise their franchise?